The Edge (MLB)
VerifiedHouse ModelHound House Models · MLB · Moneyline
MLBMoneylineEdge
Free to follow
Estimates each team's win probability from the model, strips the vig out of the moneyline, and fires only when our number beats the market's by 5+ points. It passes most slates on purpose — the restraint is the edge.
Units-29.9
ROI-15.5%
Record63-130
CLV-0.3% · 36% beat close
Win %32.6%
Graded picks193
Cumulative units
The Edge passed on today's slate.
0 days since its last pick — sitting out when there's nothing worth playing is the strategy, not a gap.
Pick history
Every pick was timestamped and locked before its game started. Graded results below are the verified record — they can never be edited.
Every number is computed from locked, graded picks — never typed in. Last graded run: 9/24/2026, 9:41 PM.
Showing 1–25 of 196 graded picks
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/2026 | Houston Astros @ Athletics7–5 | Athletics ML | +134 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/24/2026 | Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves7–6 | Cincinnati Reds ML | +183 | win | +1.83 |
| 9/24/2026 | Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs1–2 | Miami Marlins ML | +169 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/23/2026 | San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers5–1 | San Diego Padres ML | +182 | win | +1.82 |
| 9/23/2026 | Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves2–3 | Cincinnati Reds ML | +209 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/22/2026 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies7–2 | Colorado Rockies ML | +162 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/22/2026 | Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs8–2 | Miami Marlins ML | +178 | win | +1.78 |
| 9/20/2026 | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets7–2 | New York Mets ML | +141 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/19/2026 | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers4–10 | San Francisco Giants ML | +273 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/18/2026 | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers2–8 | San Francisco Giants ML | +248 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/17/2026 | Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays1–10 | Athletics ML | +232 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/16/2026 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals3–0 | Washington Nationals ML | +161 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/16/2026 | San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals6–5 | San Francisco Giants ML | +139 | win | +1.39 |
| 9/15/2026 | Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels1–2 | Los Angeles Angels ML | +141 | win | +1.41 |
| 9/15/2026 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals3–6 | Washington Nationals ML | +177 | win | +1.77 |
| 9/15/2026 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–1 | Pittsburgh Pirates ML | +213 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/15/2026 | Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays1–2 | Athletics ML | +188 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/15/2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds4–0 | Cincinnati Reds ML | +195 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/11/2026 | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants7–5 | San Francisco Giants ML | +123 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/11/2026 | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics5–6 | Athletics ML | +138 | win | +1.38 |
| 9/11/2026 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves5–6 | Philadelphia Phillies ML | +157 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/11/2026 | Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays1–3 | Houston Astros ML | +144 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/11/2026 | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox3–2 | Kansas City Royals ML | +169 | win | +1.69 |
| 9/11/2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins6–2 | Miami Marlins ML | +170 | loss | -1.00 |
| 9/11/2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs2–12 | Pittsburgh Pirates ML | +154 | loss | -1.00 |
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